INFLUENCE OF FOREIGN TRADE OF AGRI-FOOD PRODUCTS ON FOOD SECURITY IN CRISIS CONDITIONS: EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA

Abstract

The stability of food supply chains is crucial to the food security of people around the world. Since the beginning of 2020, the stability of food supply chains has been undergoing one of the most pressure tests ever due to the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russia-Ukraine war. Crises have turned into an economic threat to food security globally in the forms of lockdowns, economic decline, food trade restrictions, and rising food inflation. A large number of countries are dependent on the import of ?gri-food products, so disruptions in the supply chain can significantly threaten their level of food security. The aim of the paper is to analyze food security challenges in the crises period in the Republic of Serbia and the influence of foreign trade on the level of food security. To determine whether the Republic of Serbia is able to provide enough food during crisis periods, the food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) was calculated for cereals, as one of the most important groups of agricultural products when it comes to the dimension of availability within food security. In addition, the foreign trade exchange of cereals was analyzed by analysing the Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA), and its relation with the level of food security was analyzed by correlation coefficients. Data for this research were taken from the FAOSTAT, and World Bank database. The paper provides evidence about the level of food security and tendencies of trade in the crisis period, which can serve to create appropriate measures and policies which can mitigate the negative effects of the crisis.