Analysis of the Influence of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on the Public Debt of Serbia

Abstract

Controlling public debt is one of the most significant challenges faced by contemporary states. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the level of public debt and selected macroeconomic variables in the Republic of Serbia. The empirical analysis, based on annual data from 2006 to 2023, includes, in addition to the public debt as a percentage of gross domestic product as a dependent variable, four selected macroeconomic indicators incorporated into the model as independent variables. For the purpose of the analysis, E-views and Stata software were used. Descriptive statistics were initially presented, followed by a series of diagnostic tests such as unit root test and the derivation of the correlation matrix to reject hypotheses of non-stationarity and multicollinearity. Finally, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method was applied to interpret the effects of independent variables on the dependent variable. The research results can be significant for policymakers in defining activities aimed at maintaining the stability of public debt.